One-dimensional modelling of the consequences of climate change and invasion of the quagga mussel for the Lake Constance ecosystem
Research approach
Together with sub-project 5, this sub-project generates the numerical models, i.e. the tools required to fulfil one of the main objectives of the project, the prediction of the consequences of climate change and invasive species, as well as their interaction for the Lake Constance ecosystem and its use. The one-dimensional Simstrat model is primarily used to check the sensitivity of the model predictions to the model assumptions and to be able to make robust statements for the range of possible future developments.
Objectives
1. Simulation of the temperature structure and of oxygen and nutrient concentrations in Lake Constance using the one-dimensional lake model Simstrat.
2. Estimation of the consequences of a) climate change and b) the expected spread of the quagga mussel on the physical processes as well as the nutrient and oxygen concentrations in Lake Constance.
3. Exploration of different possible scenarios for the future development of the Lake Constance ecosystem by combining the results from 1) and 2) with the data-based ecosystem models developed in other sub-projects.
4. Development of a user-friendly online tool for stakeholders.
Cooperation within the SeeWandel-Climate project
Knowledge exchange on quagga mussel modelling; model comparison (kup, sub-project 5).
Quagga mussel physiology; quagga mussel development scenarios (Eawag, sub-project 6A).
Quagga mussel-plankton interactions (Eawag, sub-project 6B).
Coordination of the SeeWandel-Climate thematic working group “Model-based predictions”. In particular, the thematic group brings together knowledge on process-oriented modelling to predict the consequences of relevant environmental issues.
Project team
Eawag – Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Department Surface Waters – Research and Management, Switzerland
Dr. Martin Schmid – Project leader
Prof. Dr. Damien Bouffard – Project leader
Dr. Bo Gai – Scientist
In collaboration with
Prof. Dr. Bastiaan Ibelings, Department F.-A. Forel for Environmental and Aquatic Sciences, University of Geneva, Switzerland
Knowledge exchange on quagga mussel modelling
Jonas Mauch, PD Dr. Sabine Hilt, Leibnitz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB), Germany
Knowledge exchange on quagga mussel modelling
C2SM Team, Center for Climate Systems Modeling (C2SM), ETH Zurich, Switzerland
Climate scenario evaluation
